ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004 DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR INDICATE THAT FRACNES HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE AND STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION WITHOUT AN INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE CYCLONE TO INCREASE 10 MORE KNOTS AND BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN KEPT FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. FRANCES SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST UNTIL ABSORBED A FRONT IN 96 HOURS. FRANCES IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 29.5N 84.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 84.7W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/1200Z 32.0N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 08/0000Z 33.5N 85.5W 20 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/1200Z 35.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 09/1200Z 40.0N 81.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 10/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 14:32:54 UTC