ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/15. THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MOVING ALEX EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION REPORTED 973 MB AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 87 KNOTS ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON THIS DATA. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL ENCOUNTER 21 DEG SSTS IN 48 HOURS ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR FORECASTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON TO HURRICANE FORCE THROUGH 120 HOURS WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 36.5N 72.8W 80 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 37.4N 70.2W 75 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 38.6N 66.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 40.7N 61.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 43.3N 54.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 07/0000Z 45.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 08/0000Z 44.0N 20.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 09/0000Z 48.0N 10.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 04-Aug-2004 02:22:14 UTC