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Hurricane PATRICIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2003

CORRECTED FOR INITIAL POSITION
 
IN THE LIGHT OF DAY...PATRICIA DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEALTHY
CYCLONE...WITH A CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT SOMETHING IN THE VICINITY OF 55
KT...WHICH MAY BE A SHADE HIGH GIVEN THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS.
SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW/CIMSS SHOWS LESS THAN 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR...BUT THAT WAS APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE CORE
STRUCTURE.  PERHAPS PATRICIA WAS NEVER QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER
THOUGHT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
SEPARATING PATRICIA FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE-SCALE
FLOW AHEAD OF PATRICIA WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGLY DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL
TAKES PATRICIA THROUGH THE RIDGE AND MAKES IT A MAJOR HURRICANE
BEFORE STRIKING NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS
SEEMS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.  IT MAY BE THAT THE GFS IDEA FROM
YESTERDAY OF WEST AND WEAK WAS THE RIGHT ONE...AND THIS MODEL
CONTINUES TO DEFINE THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE STAKED OUT A COMPROMISE SCENARIO OF A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A BEND TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFS SOLUTIONS. 
WITH WEAKER STEERING AHEAD...A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED.

ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFS MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING...
BOTH THE UKMET AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN PATRICIA
WILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER WESTERLIES IF IT MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/2100Z 12.3N 108.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.8N 110.0W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.7N 111.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.5N 112.0W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 119.0W    35 KT
 
 
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