ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2003 THERE IS NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED WITH PATRICIA OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY T/CI NUMBERS ARE 3.5/4.5... AND SO I WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT UNTIL THE STRUCTURE CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY OR ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE PASSES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THERE IS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING PATRICIA FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE AVN KEEPING A WEAK CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL BRING A STRONGER CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS IS IN BETWEEN. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL RESPONDS TO STRONG UPPER- LEVEL WESTERLIES BY RECURVING A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND TAKES IT WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK TOOK A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS AND I HAVE NO PARTICULAR REASON YET TO CHOOSE ONE OVER THE OTHER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER... MY SUSPICION IS THAT THE GFDL SCENARIO IN PARTICULAR IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE PRESENT NORTH OF ABOUT 17N. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 12.3N 106.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 12.6N 108.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 23/1200Z 13.3N 109.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.1N 110.2W 65 KT 48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.0N 111.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 26/1200Z 18.5N 112.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W 40 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC