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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E (Text)

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2003
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CONTINUED TO
ORGANIZE THIS MORNING AND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 12Z WERE T1.5 AND T1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL THIN BUT
DECIDEDLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE ONLY THING THAT IS NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR IS THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO
THE CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE TOPS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS
EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY CURRENT THAT SHOULD TAKE THE
CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  THE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DEFLECT THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
THE NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEYOND THAT...GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH
COULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND
TO THE UPPER FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE TRACK NEAR
THE MEDIUM BAM.  THIS TRACK IS ALSO LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND UKMET
SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1630Z 10.0N 100.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 11.6N 105.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 12.5N 107.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 108.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 109.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N 110.5W    45 KT
 
 
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