ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2003 A PASS FROM THE ADEOS-II SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER AROUND 0520 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT. THIS IS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 30 KT 6-12 HOURS AGO AND THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY BEEN SPINNING DOWN SINCE THAT TIME. EVEN THOUGH THE SST IS AROUND 28 C...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS DUE TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN...AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. NORA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 20.7N 108.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 21.7N 107.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 107.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 09/1800Z 24.1N 107.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 10/0600Z 25.0N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC