ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003 NORA HARDLY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS. NIGHTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE CENTER FAIRLY EASY TO FIND. 0133 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 0550 UTC ADIOS SCATTEROMETER DATA DETECTED 25 TO 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. THEREFORE...NORA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/3. ALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF NORA MOVES AS FORECAST...IT WOULD TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY ATTEMPT TO RE-STRENGTHEN. NORA IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 20.6N 113.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 08/0600Z 21.9N 111.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 08/1800Z 23.1N 110.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/0600Z 24.7N 109.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC