ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003 WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GONE IT APPEARS THAT NORA HAS ENVELOPED DRY AND STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE WINDING DOWN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 35 KTS. IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE AIR RE-INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AND DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF NORA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/2...A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE REMAINS OF NORA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENNINSULA AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK LARGELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA CONSENSUS. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 20.4N 113.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 20.8N 113.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 21.6N 112.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 08/1200Z 22.6N 110.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 09/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC