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Hurricane NORA (Text)

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HURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003
 
NORA IS GENERATING CONVECTIVE TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE
CENTER THIS MORNING.  WHILE THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN INFRARED
IMAGERY...AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1018Z SHOWS THAT A NEARLY-CLOSED
EYEWALL IS STILL PRESENT UNDER THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR NORA IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD.  THIS BY ITSELF
WOULD CAUSE NORA TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...
HURRICANE OLAF IS NOW 540 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORA...AND THERE IS
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES.  THE
MOST LIKELY RESULT OF SUCH AN INTERACTION WOULD BE FOR NORA TO MOVE
SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...THEN SWING MORE TO THE
EAST AS INDCIATED BY THE UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS...CALLING FOR FOR NORA TO SLOW
RECURVE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A
LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND MAY HAVE TO BE REVISED IN LATER
PACKAGES.

LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AS IT TRIES TO RECURVE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER 26C SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ANY INTERACTION WITH OLAF COULD ALSO CAUSE
WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR GRADUAL
WEAKENING SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THAT INDICATED BY THE GFDL.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/1500Z 19.2N 113.5W    85 KT
 12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.9N 113.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     06/1200Z 20.7N 114.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     07/0000Z 21.5N 114.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     07/1200Z 22.3N 113.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 113.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N 112.0W    40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 
 
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