ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003 THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...BUT BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 1632Z SSMI PASS...THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/06. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS. THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 5 DAYS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTH BY 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER A RECENT 30 KNOT SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION FROM MANZANILLO MIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE HIGHER AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 95 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS TO 70 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 75 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS. COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 17.1N 107.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 17.4N 108.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.9N 109.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 19.0N 112.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.3N 116.6W 75 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 120.0W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC