ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A GOOD CURVED BAND PATTERN AND THE BEGINNINGS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINDA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD MOVE LINDA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS LINDA REACHES COLDER WATER...WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LINDA SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR 24-36 HR... AND THUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...COLDER WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 18.6N 111.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 19.6N 113.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 20.7N 114.7W 70 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 21.4N 116.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 21.8N 117.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC