ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2003 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT CURVED BAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND ALL THREE SATELLITE FIXES ARE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION NEAR A BURST OF CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THE CENTER COULD BE RE-FORMING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY... THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PARTLY ON THE FIXES AND PARTLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 25 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A MID/ UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR 72 HR OR SO...THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U. S. WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SLOW FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME PREDOMINANT. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE BAM MODELS AND LBAR LIKELY TAKE THE SYSTEM TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND NHC91. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C-29C...BUT THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 24C AFTER 72 HR. THIS INDICATES A NARROW WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STRONG AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT TO MODERATE...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HR OR LESS AND PEAK IN 36-48 HR. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR THEREAFTER. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 19.6N 112.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 20.0N 113.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 20.6N 115.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 21.1N 117.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 21.5N 119.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 122.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/0000Z 22.5N 129.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC