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Hurricane JIMENA (Text)

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HURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2003
 
AFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...JIMENA APPEARS
TO BE LEVELLING OFF. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING
INDICATE THAT JIMENA MAINTAINS A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE...ALTHOUGH IT
HAS FILLED IN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...77 KT FROM HONOLULU...AND
102 KT FROM AFWA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 85 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL MOTION NOW HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT...275 AT
15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR BUILDING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JIMENA TO THE WEST...AND AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HOURS. THE UKMET PERSISTS AS THE
NORTHERN OUTLIER.  GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE BUILDING
RIDGE...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
IGNORED. THE FORECAST TRACK ALONG 18N IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CONTROL THE INTENSITY. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
THE 26C SST ISOTHERM FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS LEVEL AT 85 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

SINCE JIMENA HAS CROSSED 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...THE NEXT
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0900Z 17.3N 140.7W    85 KT
 12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N 143.3W    85 KT
 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.7N 146.7W    85 KT
 36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.9N 150.5W    80 KT
 48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 154.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N 160.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N 166.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N 171.5W    70 KT
 
 
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