ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003 POORLY-ORGANIZED IGNACIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA REVEAL A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT NORTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 4 KT. SATELLITE ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE IS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA... PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY FASTER..AND ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THERE APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL FOR SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 25.6N 111.6W 30 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 27/0600Z 26.0N 112.1W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 27/1800Z 26.6N 112.7W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/0600Z 27.3N 113.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 48HR VT 28/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 29/1800Z 29.2N 114.6W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 96HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC