ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003 THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA HAS TURNED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW PUFFS OF WEAK CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...BUT A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED WITHIN 75 NMI OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 25 KT BASED ON THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT HAS FORMED AND A DVORAK INTENSITY OF 25 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/09...BASED ON THE LAST 5 HOURS THAT THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN CLEARLY VISIBLE. HILDA IS EXPECTED REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS. THE SOUTHERLY INFLOW REMAINS CUTOFF BY THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH OF HILDA...AND ONLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ALIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER ...HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A THICK FIELD OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT BEGINS NEAR 133W LONGITUDE...AND THAT IS THE TIMING USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF DISSIPATION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ALSO INCREASES THE WESTERLY SHEAR TO NEAR 40 KT BY 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 18.4N 129.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.6N 131.1W 25 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 18.8N 133.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 135.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 15/0000Z 18.9N 137.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC