ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003 AFTER LOSING MUCH OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GUILLERMO. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE THREE ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO MAY BE TAKING A SMALL JOG MORE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THIS IS ASSUMED TO BE A SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATION AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THEREAFTER. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...GUILLERMO IS STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES WEST OF GUILLERMO WHICH IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW AND PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TO THE EAST...DEVELOPING T.S. HILDA WITH ITS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. FOR NOW...THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF GUILLERMO APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR INTENSITY CHANGE. IT IS PRODUCING A SEMI-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR OVER GUILLERMO AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE INCREASING SHEAR FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM SST...SO THAT SHOULD NOT BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE DEVELOPING T.S. HILDA WILL HAVE ON GUILLERMO. FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 15.4N 125.2W 45 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.5N 126.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 15.6N 129.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 15.6N 131.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 15.6N 134.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 15.3N 140.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 15.0N 146.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W 35 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC