ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2003 A FEW BURSTS OF COLD-TOP CONVECTION HAVE FIRED OFF NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OBSERVED EARLIER WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING. NONETHELESS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 25 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AFWA...TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN AN ENVIROMENT OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR IN THE FORECAST. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 45 KT IN 24 HOURS THEN MAINTAINS THIS INTENSITY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME...NARROWING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE 18 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS A MUCH BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE INNER VORTEX OF THE CYCLONE. IT MOVES THE DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND STEERING IS GOVERNED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT TURNS THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST SOONER. FORECASTER COBB/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 15.0N 109.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 15.6N 111.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 16.4N 113.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 17.1N 116.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 124.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 129.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 16/0000Z 17.5N 133.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC