ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003 CARLOS TRIED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MADE LANDFALL. SSM/I OVERPASSES AT 0220Z AND 0321Z INDICATED THAT A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAD FORMED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...WITH THE LATTER OVERPASS SHOWING THE EYE CROSSING THE MEXICAN COAST. BASED ON THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AT THAT TIME...WHICH INCLUDED AN OCCASIONAL WARM SPOT...IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 55 KT. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DECAYED AS THE CENTER HAS EDGED INLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD DEFLECT CARLOS MORE TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY NHC TRACK GUIDANCE. OF COURSE...ALL OF THESE THINGS WERE SEEN LAST NIGHT AND CARLOS WOUND UP MOVING NORTHWARD. GIVEN THAT CAVEAT... THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HR...WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CENTER JUST INLAND THROUGH 72 HR...THEN HAVE IT EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES BY 96 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOS TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION YET SURVIVE OVER LAND FOR 72 HR. EVEN IF THE STORM STAYS AS CLOSE TO THE COAST AS FORECAST THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER BACK TO THE PACIFIC AND ALLOW CARLOS TO EITHER STRENGTHEN OR WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...AND THAT EVEN IF CARLOS SURVIVES THE WATERS WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES ARE TOO COLD TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT. HEAVY RAINS WITH ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL CARLOS EITHER MOVES OUT OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATES. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 16.4N 97.9W 50 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 16.8N 98.6W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 28/0600Z 17.2N 99.6W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 28/1800Z 17.5N 100.6W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 29/0600Z 17.9N 101.6W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 30/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 01/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER 120HR VT 02/0600Z 21.0N 109.0W 25 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC