ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU JUN 19 2003 A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BLANCA DURING THE PAST FEW HR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. SHIP 9VID2 REPORTED 28 KT AND 1004.5 MB ABOUT 40 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS 12Z...SUGGESTING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. BLANCA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IF ANYTHING...IT HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD SINCE YESTERDAY. LARGE SCALE-MODELS INDICATE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF BLANCA GIVING IT A GENERAL WESTWARD NUDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN A NORTHWESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...BUT ARE UNANIMOUSLY SLOW. THE BAMS AND NHC 91 CALL FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND ARE MUCH FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE SLOW MOTION OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. BLANCA CONTINUES IN EASTERLY SHEAR...AND TENDENCY ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THE SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HR. ADDTIONALLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE CYCLONE. THIS COMBINATION SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDOW IS CLOSING ON CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASED SHEAR AFTER 24 HR...AND EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK NOW KEEPS BLANCA OVER WARM SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KILL IT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO EVENTUAL DISSIPATION IN 96-120 HR. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.4N 104.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 16.2N 105.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 16.0N 105.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 106.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 110.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC