ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU JUN 19 2003 DEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME CELLS ARE NOW RE-DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN 35 KT. ALTHOUGH BLANCA WAS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SWATH...WHERE THE WIND DATA ARE SOMEWHAT LESS RELIABLE...THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE PROBLEMATIC WHEN A SYSTEM HAS SO LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT HIGHEST CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45 KT. THE WEAKENING WAS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND A COOLING OF THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODEL 200 MB WIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN VIEW OF THIS...AND BLANCA'S RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES. INDEED...UNLESS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES A MAJOR COMEBACK SOON...BLANCA MAY MEET ITS DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY...WHICH PICKS UP SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD LINES...SUGGESTS THAT IT IS IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. BLANCA REMAINS SITUATED NEAR A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.5N 104.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 16.5N 105.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.5N 105.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 106.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 16.5N 107.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 110.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC