ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003 THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS CONTINUES TO BE WELL EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST. WHILE AVAILABLE 18Z SATELLITE LOCATION ESTIMATES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...DVORAK INTENSITY DROPPED SLIGHTLY SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KTS WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08. WE EXPECT NICHOLAS TO BEGIN ITS CURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC UPPER RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE TROF MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THUS THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS AGAIN A CONSENSUS. EXPECT THE WIND FIELD TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AFTER 24 HRS AS THE TRANSITION TO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL GALE BEGINS. FORECASTER MAUSSER FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 18.7N 52.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 19.5N 53.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 21.1N 54.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 23.4N 54.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 25.6N 54.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 54.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 44.0N 53.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 26/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:01 UTC