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Tropical Storm NICHOLAS (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003
 
THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS NOW CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF
DIMINISHING CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45-55 KT...AN 8Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE
MORE LIKELY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SO CONTINUED
WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OR BECOMES
ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.

WITH THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NOW BEGUN
TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/4. 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NORTH AMERICA INTO
THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND GFDL
SOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...
NICHOLAS COULD TAKE A TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHALLOW BAM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 18.0N  48.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.3N  49.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 18.9N  50.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.6N  50.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N  53.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  53.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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