ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003 BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THE CLOUD PATTERN LACKS BANDING FEATURES...AND THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION IS STILL RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL VORTEX OR VORTMAX JUST WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... WHICH APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOW SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS NOT HIGH. MY BEST GUESS FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE IS A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL'S PREDICTED WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 50W. THIS RIDGE COULD BLOCK THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 10.8N 41.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 11.3N 42.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 11.9N 43.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 44.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 13.3N 44.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 46.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 46.0W 65 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC