ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003 MINDY IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW CLOUD CENTER WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 90NM TO THE EAST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM WHETHER MINDY HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER WE ARE ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE THESE SHEARED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO SURPRISE US. THIS IS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8. MINDY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN FORWARD SPEED FOLLOWING A GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AS IT RESPONDS TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BYPASS MINDY AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH THE TRACK TAKES MINDY SOUTH OF BERMUDA...INTERESTS IN THE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 25.2N 71.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 26.8N 70.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 28.8N 67.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 30.6N 64.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 61.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.5N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 16/1200Z 36.0N 49.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 45.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC