ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LARRY HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. SINCE THE CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOOPS...BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS RECON FIX AND PAST MOTION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/02...BASED ON A 12-HOUR TREND. LARRY IS EAST AND SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD...THE RIDGE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY...ALBEIT STILL RATHER WEAK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE LARRY TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE GFDL TAKE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND NOGAPS WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LARRY OVER MEXICO AND RE-GENERATE A NEW SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO LEFT/EAST OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAINLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER TRACK. THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE SIGNALING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION...NOW THAT THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LARRY MAKES LANDFALL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 19.3N 93.7W 50 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 19.0N 93.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.9N 93.7W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.3N 94.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 72HR VT 07/1200Z 16.5N 94.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.5N 95.5W 20 KT...PACIFIC REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/1200Z 15.0N 97.0W 20 KT...PACIFIC REMNANT LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:00 UTC