ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LARRY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW INDICATE LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL FRONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS. THE WIND FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR WITH MINIMAL WIND SHIFTS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. CONSEQUENTLY...THE LOW CAN NOW REASONABLY BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LARRY STILL DOES NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED SWIRLS MOVING ABOUT A BROADER CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS GIVEN THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER...BUT IS APPROXIMATELY STATIONARY. LARRY IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. A STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LARRY WILL EVER FEEL ITS INFLUENCE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH PERHAPS A WESTWARD DRIFT AFTER THAT. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO DEVELOP SOME BEFORE RAPID STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR. THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...SO IF LARRY STAYS IN ONE SPOT FOR TOO LONG THIS WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE IS ALSO NOT CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW STRENGTHENING TREND. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0000Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 93.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 21.0N 94.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 21.0N 95.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC