ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003 A RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST IS KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. CONSENSUS 3.5 CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL MAKE KATE A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FORECAST BY ALL BUT THE UKMET MODEL CAUSING A DECELERATION OF KATE AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...REMAINING SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS DURING DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE THAT COULD ACTUALLY ALLOW KATE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER MARGINAL SSTS...APPROXIMATELY 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...IN THAT PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER KATE BY THAT TIME...IT IS NOT UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/0900Z 27.7N 39.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 29/1800Z 29.0N 38.3W 55 KT 24HR VT 30/0600Z 30.1N 37.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 30/1800Z 31.0N 37.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 01/0600Z 31.3N 37.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 02/0600Z 31.6N 39.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 03/0600Z 32.5N 41.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 04/0600Z 34.0N 44.0W 60 KT NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC