ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003 AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0014Z SHOWED THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THEY ARE ALL BASED ON A CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION THAN INDICATED BY THE MICROWAVE DATA. THUS...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/14. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE GFS... CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST THESE FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO RE-CURVE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE UKMET IS AN OUTLIER CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND DRIFT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RECURVATURE...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THAT OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS. THE INITIAL MOTION AND SPEED REQUIRES THE FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED CONSIDERABELY TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. IF SHEAR WERE THE ONLY FACTOR...THE DEPRESSION WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE. HOWEVER... THERE COULD BE DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT COULD PARTLY COMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR...AND THE GFS..NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN ALL CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY AFTER RECURVATURE. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 18.6N 42.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 43.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 21.9N 44.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 23.6N 45.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 24.8N 46.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 26.0N 46.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 01/0000Z 27.5N 45.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.5N 43.0W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC