ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003 THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION IS INDICATING...AND THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE MOVING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK SINCE FIXING A POSITION IN NIGHTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ON POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. THE LONG TERM TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF TD-16 IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED BAND OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION. THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED CENTER BECOMES APPARENT... THE FUTURE TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE RIGHTMOST GFS MODEL IMMEDIATELY TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE PAST AND CURRENT SATELLITE MOTION TRENDS. THE REST OF THE NHC GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND QUITE DIVERGENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH MOST STILL INDICATING RECURVATURE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND MEDIUM BAM CONSENSUS. IF TD-16 DEVELOPS/REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH... THEN IT MAY NOT GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GET PICKED UP BY THE LARGE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLCONE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OT REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...SO THE SHIPS MODEL WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS...AND MORE STRENGTHENING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 13.0N 40.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 14.1N 41.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 15.4N 43.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 16.5N 45.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 17.6N 47.4W 50 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 19.5N 49.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 21.0N 50.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 22.5N 51.0W 55 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC