ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003 CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE WARMED SOME...BUT THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT BE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR AS JUAN ACCELERATES TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA...THE SSTS COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE HURRICANE MAY HAVE CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY BRINGING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWNWARD OVER THE COLD WATER AS WELL. HOWEVER...JUAN SHOULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ACCELERATION...THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. THERE WAS A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE AT 00Z AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED LEFTWARD AS WELL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 36.8N 63.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 39.0N 64.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 44.3N 64.4W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 29/1200Z 50.7N 64.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC