ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003 JUAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A DISTINCT 15 NMI EYE APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER OF T4.4...OR 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11. JUAN APPEARS TO HAVE MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD JOG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR LOW HAS PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT DURING THE PAST FEW HOUS...SO A RETURN TO A BASE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF JUAN IS CONTINUING TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RESULTANT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE JUAN NORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON THIS TRACK...JUAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THERE IS LITTLE TIME LEFT FOR JUAN TO STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS SO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. JUAN SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM LOCATED ALONG 40N LATITUDE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KT BY 60 HOURS...JUAN SHOULD ALREADY BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME...SO VERTICAL SHEAR MAY NOT PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND AFTER 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUAN COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NOVA SCOTIA AS A HURRICANE...AND COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. THE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALREADY ISSUED HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE NOVA SCOTIA MARINE AREAS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 34.9N 62.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 36.4N 62.8W 80 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 38.9N 63.4W 80 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 43.0N 63.2W 75 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 48.7N 62.0W 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 30/0600Z 61.0N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC