ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003 HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS...BASED ON THE LATEST PASS OF THE ADIOS SCATTEROMETER. IN ADDITION A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED 996.6 MB AT 1800 UTC. THE OCEAN IS STILL WARM AND THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED A BIT. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS. THE CENTER WAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWARD TRACK FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS VARY IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/2100Z 30.9N 61.8W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/0600Z 32.0N 62.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 62.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 27/0600Z 35.0N 63.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 27/1800Z 37.0N 63.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 28/1800Z 42.0N 63.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 29/1800Z 48.0N 60.8W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 30/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC