ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003 ISABEL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 75 TO 80 KNOTS. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT 100 KNOTS SO FAR ON THIS MISSION...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE UNCHANGED. ASSUMING THAT THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 90 KNOTS. IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND HIGHER WINDS SOON...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO DECREASE THE INTENSITY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT ISABEL IS MOVING ABOUT 330 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SINCE THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ARE HIGHLY CLUSTERED WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES NEAR LANDFALL. HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON A PRECISE LANDFALL POINT SINCE ISABEL IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH DAMAGING WINDS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. ONCE ISABEL MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 31.9N 73.9W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/1200Z 33.7N 75.6W 95 KT 24HR VT 19/0000Z 36.5N 77.5W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 19/1200Z 39.5N 78.5W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 20/0000Z 43.0N 77.5W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0000Z 57.0N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:59 UTC