ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRMED 135-KNOT SURFACE WINDS AT 18Z AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MISSION AT 06Z...SO THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 135 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TODAY BUT A LARGE WELL-DEFINED IMPRESSIVE EYE PERSISTS AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD SYMMETRY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...IT HAS REMAINED THE SAME FOR OVER 24 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS CLOSELY CLUSTERED AND SHOWING A LANDFALL IN JUST UNDER 96 HOURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE SCENARIO CONSISTS OF A DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND TWO SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL SLOW ISABELS FORWARD SPEED WHILE IT TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL CAUSE AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH ISABEL MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5. ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...SO ISABEL IS LIKELY TO STILL BE QUITE DANGEROUS AT LANDFALL. SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ALSO OFFICIAL 4-DAY TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AVERAGE ABOUT 275 MILES. WE INTEND THAT THE ISABEL FORECASTS WILL BE MORE ACCURATE...BUT INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 24.5N 68.3W 135 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 25.2N 69.5W 135 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 26.2N 70.6W 130 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 27.6N 71.4W 125 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 28.9N 72.1W 120 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 32.8N 74.2W 115 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 38.3N 76.8W 90 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/0000Z 45.5N 80.0W 35 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC