ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ISABEL HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE -70C AND THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES HAVE COME IN WITH A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5...OR 127 KT. THE EYE REMAINS VERY DISTINCT AND CIRCULAR...ALBEIT WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE 40 NMI DIAMETER. THE INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 135 KT SINCE THE EYE HAS BECOME EMBEDDED DIRECTLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. SUCH PERFECT SYMMETRY OFTENTIMES INDICATES A CYCLONE STRONGER THAN SATELLITE THE ESTIMATES...WHICH WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. RECON WILL IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOW STRONGLY CONVERGENT ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE WAS A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE IS NOW MUCH LESS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 23.7N 66.3W 135 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 24.2N 67.9W 135 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 25.2N 69.6W 135 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 26.1N 70.6W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 27.2N 71.6W 125 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 30.0N 73.2W 120 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 34.5N 75.5W 110 KT...NEAR NORTH CAROLINA 120HR VT 19/1200Z 41.0N 77.5W 70 KT...INLAND NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC