ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003 HENRI IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER...STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT STRENGTHENING. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH AN ADJACENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 055/7 WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE GREAT SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OR MEANDERING IN A FEW DAYS AS STEERING CURRENTS BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 32.7N 75.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 33.3N 74.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.8N 73.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0000Z 34.3N 72.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1200Z 34.7N 71.8W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1200Z 35.0N 71.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z 35.0N 70.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 35.0N 70.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC