ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003 AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HELPED LOWER THE PRESSURE TO 997 MB...BUT RECENT IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS REASSERTING ITSELF. THE MOST RECENT PRESSURE REPORT FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS BACK UP TO 999 MB. THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL PULSES OF APPARENT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE CENTER FIX LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC TODAY...BUT OVERALL YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/4. THE FORECAST THINKING IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHIN ABOUT 100 MILES OR SO OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. AFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORWARD SPEED...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-WESTERLIES AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT HENRI WILL BE SHEARED TO PIECES AND THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT WILL BE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH AND DISSIPATE. SHOULD HENRI REGAIN STORM STRENGTH IN THE ATLANTIC...THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE QUADRANTS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A STRONG SYNOPTIC GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND THE DECAYING CYCLONE COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HENRI CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 28.4N 83.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 29.0N 83.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 30.1N 81.8W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/0600Z 31.2N 80.3W 35 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 07/1800Z 32.0N 79.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 33.5N 76.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 34.0N 74.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 34.0N 73.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC