ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN IS NOW BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SOME SHEARING IS EVIDENT. THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WARM WATER BUT IS ENTRAINING SOME DRYER COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS PROBABLY THE START OF THE TRANSITION TO THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL RANGE FROM ABOUT 80 TO 90 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 85 KNOTS. FABIAN IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/22. A CONTINUED GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED EXTRATROPICAL STORM...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. ONE..THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN AND MEANDERS AS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE. TWO...THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN...AND THEN MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST. THIS LAST SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST WHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 39.7N 54.7W 85 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 41.8N 51.3W 75 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 46.1N 44.8W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/1800Z 51.2N 36.8W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0600Z 55.0N 30.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 56.5N 21.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 60.0N 16.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 62.5N 15.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:58 UTC