ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FABIAN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE GOOD CENTRAL AND BANDING FEATURES...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...AN EYE FEATURE IS BECOMING APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC...RESPECTIVELY. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FABIAN IS MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO EVEN WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE FABIAN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. IN THE SHORT RANGE...THE GFS MOVES FABIAN ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AND IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS TREATS FABIAN AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN EXCELLENT MODEL AND ATTENTION MUST BE PAID TO THE NEXT RUN. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 17.2N 48.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.5N 50.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.5N 53.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 55.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 57.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 61.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 22.0N 64.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 67.5W 100 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC