ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003 SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...WITH A MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED IN THE CONVECTION. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/11. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36-48 HR AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST- NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WITH SOME DECELERATION AFTER 36-48 HR. THIS IS AGREED ON BY MOST GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY MOTION FOR THE CYCLONE...AS THEY ARE SLOWER TO MOVE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AFTER 72 HR...BUT ANY BIG CHANGES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. RIDGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF FORECAST EVOLUTIONS FROM THE VERY FAVORABLE TO MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE. THE PRESENCE OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ALSO COMPLICATES MATTERS. ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH WOULD WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT WOULD MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF HISPANIOLA... BUT INCREASE THE TIME SPENT OVER CUBA AND THUS SLOW OR STOP INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL IN HISPNIOLA...WITH STRENGTHENING RESUMING AFTER THE CYCLONE LEAVES THE ISLAND. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 15.9N 68.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 16.8N 69.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 17.9N 71.5W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/1800Z 19.0N 73.2W 40 KT...OVER WATER 48HR VT 24/0600Z 20.0N 74.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 25/0600Z 22.0N 77.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 26/0600Z 24.0N 78.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 27/0600Z 25.5N 80.0W 60 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC