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Tropical Storm DANNY (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003
 
THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND IS NO LONGER OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW
AND TWO MAIN HOOKING BANDS. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE STORM IS
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS...STRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...AND DANNY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT QUITE REACH HURRICANE
STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY
REACH 65 KNOTS DURING A CONVECTIVE BURST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
DANNY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD BE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS ONCE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
AFTER 48 HOURS...DANNY SHOULD BE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND
WEAKENING. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTH AROUND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT SOLUTION BUT THE TURN IS
MORE GRADUAL AND SLOWER.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 35.8N  56.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 37.4N  56.6W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 39.5N  54.5W    60 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  50.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 43.0N  46.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 41.5N  37.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/1800Z 39.0N  35.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  35.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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