ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 900 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 The depression has maintained a sheared appearance in satellite imagery this evening. The low-level center is exposed to the east of its deep convective overcast, which has a sharp eastern edge as moderate east-northeasterly shear continues to impinge on its circulation. The distance between the center and the cold overcast has slightly increased from earlier today, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with a blend of the various objective and subjective satellite estimates, which range from 25 to 35 kt. Ten-E is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone, as the moderate deep-layer shear currently plaguing the system is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days. So although SSTs remain above 26 deg C along its forecast track, the shear will continue to disrupt the system's vertical organization and import drier mid-level air from the east into its circulation. The official NHC forecast shows little change in strength during the next 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening as the system is forecast to lose deep organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 36 h. The remnant low could meander for a day or so before it succumbs to increased shear and drier air and eventually opens into a trough. The depression is still moving west-northwestward (285/7 kt) around a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The vertically shallow system should gradually turn westward to west-southwestward over the next couple of days as it becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 18.2N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/1200Z 17.9N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
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