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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022
The depression has maintained a sheared appearance in satellite
imagery this evening. The low-level center is exposed to the east of
its deep convective overcast, which has a sharp eastern edge as
moderate east-northeasterly shear continues to impinge on its
circulation. The distance between the center and the cold overcast
has slightly increased from earlier today, and the initial intensity
is held at 30 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with a blend
of the various objective and subjective satellite estimates, which
range from 25 to 35 kt.
Ten-E is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone, as the
moderate deep-layer shear currently plaguing the system is forecast
to strengthen during the next couple of days. So although SSTs
remain above 26 deg C along its forecast track, the shear will
continue to disrupt the system's vertical organization and import
drier mid-level air from the east into its circulation. The official
NHC forecast shows little change in strength during the next 12-24
h, followed by gradual weakening as the system is forecast to lose
deep organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 36 h.
The remnant low could meander for a day or so before it succumbs to
increased shear and drier air and eventually opens into a trough.
The depression is still moving west-northwestward (285/7 kt) around
a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The vertically
shallow system should gradually turn westward to west-southwestward
over the next couple of days as it becomes steered by the low-level
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
one and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0300Z 18.2N 112.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.4N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 18.5N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 18.2N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z 17.9N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
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