000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Dec 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds continue in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a tight pressure gradient between a
1026 mb high in east-central Mexico and a 1018 mb low in the
western Gulf of Mexico prevails. The strongest winds are expected
today into early Wed. Gales will continue into late Wed night,
and strong gap winds will occur through late this week. Rough to
very rough seas will accompany these winds, with peak seas near 
15 ft expected. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued 
by the National Hurricane Center at the website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N106W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N106W to a 1011 mb low near 08N127W to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is
occurring from 06N to 10N between 93W and 100W, from 07N to 10N
between 105W to 111W, and from 07N to 10N between 118W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
on gale-force N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad subtropical ridge is centered near 28N125W and a 1015 mb
low is over southwestern Arizona, with a trough extending through
the Gulf of California. This pattern supports moderate NW winds
over the waters offshore of Baja California and in the Gulf of
California. Seas range from 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf, and from 5 to
7 ft offshore of Baja California. Farther south, gentle to
locally moderate N to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, aside from gale-force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will 
continue to support mainly moderate NW to N winds and moderate 
seas across the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters this 
week. Winds will diminish this weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Strong to near gale-force E winds continue in the Gulf of
Papagayo as a strong pressure gradient between ridging in the
Gulf of Mexico and the Colombian low prevails. Fresh NE winds
extend downstream to near 92W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted in
this region, building to 8 ft with the strongest winds. Moderate
to locally fresh NE winds are also occurring offshore of 
Guatemala through Nicaragua, and in the Gulf of Panama. 
Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring
offshore of Colombia and Ecuador, mainly from 01N to 05N. 
Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds and moderate
seas prevail south of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, strong NE winds will occur in the Gulf of
Papagayo into Thu as a strong pressure gradient between ridging
to the north and the Colombian low prevails. Winds may approach
gale-force today through Wed morning. Locally rough seas in NE
swell associated with these winds will occur into Thu. Winds will
remain fresh into this weekend. Farther west, rough seas induced
by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will enter waters
well offshore of Guatemala tonight. Moderate to locally fresh NE
winds will pulse across the remainder of the Central American 
waters through Thu. Otherwise, moderate to at times fresh S to SW
winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon 
trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1021 mb high pressure centered near 28N125W dominates the 
tropical eastern Pacific, supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE
winds north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail south 
of 20N and west of 120W, with locally strong winds occurring near
the 1011 mb low near 08N127W. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted
south of 21N and west of 116W, with local seas to 11 ft 
surrounding the aforementioned low. Moderate to locally fresh S 
to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted south of the ITCZ and
west of 100W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the long-period NW swell will promote rough
seas west of 115W through midweek. Peak seas near 11 ft are 
likely in the far western waters. In the eastern waters, fresh 
to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will spread downstream 
from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo over the next 
couple of days, diminishing late this week. Otherwise, high 
pressure will dominate the eastern Pacific, supporting gentle to 
locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas through the rest 
of this week.

$$
ADAMS