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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250347
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Feb 25 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...The Fuego Volcano inland over Southern 
Guatemala near at 14.5N 90.9W is erupting. A plume of volcanic 
ash may reach to the surface across the Pacific waters N of 14N 
and E of 93W. Low level visibilities may be reduced to 6 nm or 
less. Mariners should exercise caution. If mariners encounter 
volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to 
the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4425. Please 
refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the ashfall 
advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica 
at 09N84W to 03N100W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ, which continues NW to 08N123W to beyond 
05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed along the ITCZ within 120 nm either side of a line from 
00N100W to 03N108W and within 150 nm either side of a line from 
15N120W to 08N130W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Pacific waters w of the Baja Peninsula: A W to E ridge extends 
across the offshore waters from 20N116W to 14N97W. Moderate NW 
to N winds, with 5 to 8 ft seas will continue with the seas 
gradually subsiding to less than 8 ft by Sun evening.  Another 
round of NW swell in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas will reach 
30N120W on Mon morning with fresh to strong NW winds arriving on 
Mon night. Expect fresh NW winds and 8 to 14 ft seas N of 24N on 
Tue night, and moderate N winds and 7 to 10 ft seas w of the 
entire Baja Peninsula on Wed night.
Expect seas to subside to less than 8 ft briefly on Thu with 
another round of NW swell reaching 30N120W on Fr morning.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Gentle onshore flow expected during the 
daylight hours with gentle offshore during the overnight hours 
through Mon. Moderate to locally fresh northerly drainage flow 
forecast on Mon night. Model guidance is suggesting the next 
strong event will occur on thu night.   

Gulf of California: Strong NW winds currently across central 
gulf waters between 24N and 28N will diminish to a fresh breeze 
around sunrise on Sun. The pressure gradient will quickly relax 
on Sun and Mon, with gentle winds gradually clocking to S by Mon 
evening, then increasing to a strong SW breeze along 30N on Mon 
night ahead of the next cold front sweeping across the northern 
gulf waters on Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE winds will continue 
to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Fri, with seas building to 7 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage flow is then 
forecast overnight and on Sun night with fresh winds expected to 
resume on Mon and Tue nights.  

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to 
support fresh to locally strong NE trades, and 7 to 11 ft seas, 
across the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 
115W with the pressure gradient is forecast to further tighten 
on Mon. Expect a strong NE breeze, with 8 to 12 ft seas, across 
the Pacific waters from 08N to 24N W of 129W by early Tue. Model 
guidance indicates that the pressure gradient will begin to 
relax on Thu. 

Northerly swell, in the form of 6 to 9 ft seas, will continue to 
propagate S across the waters from 28N to 32N between 120W and 
127W through Mon. Around round of strong northerly winds will 
reach along 32N between 120W and 130W on Mon evening. These 
winds will diminish to a fresh N breeze on Tue, but expect 8 to 
15 ft seas across the Pacific waters from 22N to 32N between 
117W and 130W on Tue night, with the seas quickly subsiding on 
Wed.

$$
Nelson

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Page last modified: Sunday, 25-Feb-2018 03:48:08 UTC