000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261526
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located 
over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 11N99W to a 1008 mb low
pressure situated near 10N115W to 06N128W. The ITCZ continues 
from 06N128W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident near the low center from 06N to 10N
between 110W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 06N to 10N between 93W and 110W, and from 05N to 09N W of 
134W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The most recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed the
presence of fresh winds along the coast of Baja California 
Norte, between broad ridging to the west and lower pressure over 
central Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with a component of NW swell. 
Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California, with 
seas of 1 to 3 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, 
light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, primarily in SW 
swell.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressure inland Mexico will continue to support moderate to
fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas across the waters W of the
Baja California peninsula, and mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro
through mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW 
swell will prevail elsewhere. Hazy conditions may persist off 
southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to 
agricultural fires over southern Mexico. Looking ahead, seas 
conditions are expected to deteriorate N of Punta Eugenia Wed 
night into Thu as long period NW swell reaches the area. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light winds are noted north of the monsoon trough along roughly 
10N, with gentle to moderate S to SW south of it. Combined seas 
are 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos 
Islands. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are 
developing along and near the monsoon trough. Light concentration
of smoke is observed across the offshore waters of Guatemala and
El Salvador due to mostly agricultural fires onshore.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south 
of the monsoon trough with axis along roughly 10N while light to 
gentle winds are expected north of it through mid week. Light haze
from smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central America offshore waters
through the next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge is the main feature controlling the weather regime across
most of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. This pattern is 
supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds N of the ITCZ and W of
130W, and gentle to moderate N to NE winds N of the ITCZ/Monsoon
trough between 110W and 130W. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft based
on altimeter data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted S
of the monsoon trough across most of the forecast region. 

For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area while weakening some through
mid-week. Little change is noted over the remainder of the area
through the early part of the week. Tropical cyclone formation 
is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
GR