000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060351
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua 
near 11N85W to 09N101W to 06N122W. The ITCZ extends from 06N122W
to 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04N to 08N between 83W and 88W, from 06N to 11N
between 102W and 112W, and from 07N to 11N between 114W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad high pressure is over the offshore waters of Mexico. The 
pressure gradient between the high pressure and a cold front
entering the Baja California Norte is supporting moderate to fresh
NW winds offshore the peninsula, except for locally strong winds
between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Seas with these winds
are in the range of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of 
California, winds are light and variable S of 30N along with seas
to 2 ft. N of 30N in the northern Gulf, moderate to fresh SW 
winds are ongoing with seas to 3 ft. Elsewhere in the S and SW 
Mexican offshore waters winds are light to gentle from the W-NW 
with moderate seas to 6 ft in mixed S and NW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW winds N of Cabo San
Lazaro will continue through early Mon morning. South of Cabo 
San Lazaro, fresh winds will dominate as a weak cold front moves
southward across the Baja California Norte offshore waters and
the northern Gulf of California tonight into Mon. NW swell with 
seas 8 to 10 ft will follow the front across the Baja California 
offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Mon through Thu. Winds along
the Baja peninsula will diminish to mainly moderate speeds early
Tue morning and prevail through Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light variable winds prevail across the Central America offshore
waters with 4-6 ft seas in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador
and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the
S-SE with 6 to 8 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, winds south of 07N will increase to moderate 
to locally fresh speeds from Tue morning through Fri. Light to 
gentle variable winds will be prevalent elsewhere along with 
moderate seas due to a S swell. Otherwise, seas of 5 to 7 ft S of
the Galapagos Islands will continue for most of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging across the subtropical waters is intersected by a
weak cold front that extends from 30N115W to 25N127W to 25N140W.
Moderate to locally N-NE winds are noted behind the front with 
5-7 ft seas. Between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 120W,
moderate to fresh NE winds and 7-9 ft seas in NE swell prevails. South
of the ITCZ, gentle and moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 
to 9 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will prevail through mid-week. Seas 
with these winds will be 5 to 9 ft and will subside by Wed. The 
cold front will continue to move S-SE and dissipate on Mon. NW 
swell following the front will impact the waters mainly N of 25W
and E of 130W Mon night through Thu, bringing seas to 10 ft over
the NE subtropical waters. The swell will subside below 8 ft by 
Thu night.

$$
Ramos