000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 22 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 12N108W to 08N122W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N122W to 07N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N
between 79W and 116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging persists over the eastern Pacific north of 18N and
west of 115W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure
and lower pressure over central Mexico is giving way to moderate
to fresh NW winds off Baja California offshore waters. NW swell
is bringing seas of 7 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia, beyond 90 
nm offshore impacting the waters around Guadalupe Island.
Elsewhere across the Mexico offshore waters, including the Gulf
of California, light to gentle breezes persist. Seas are 2 to 4
ft at the entrance of the Gulf with seas to 2 ft across the rest
of the Gulf. Seas range 5 to 6 ft along the southern Mexico
offshore waters in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural 
fires has spread light to medium haze across the offshore waters 
over southern Mexico which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate 
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the week.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the Baja California 
offshore waters will continue through Sun night. NW swell moving
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters will persist
through tonight, and subside below 8 ft by Thu. Winds in the 
Gulf of California could increase to moderate to briefly fresh 
tonight through Sat night as low pressure temporarily deepens 
over the Colorado River Valley, then as a dissipating cold front
moves into the region by the weekend. Light to medium haze from 
smoke caused by agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce 
visibilities over the southern Mexico offshore waters through 
Wed. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered moderate convection continues to impact the entire
Central America offshore waters and Colombia, due in part to 
converging SW winds farther offshore associated with the monsoon 
trough. Moderate SW winds are evident south of 08N, with light 
and variable winds north of 08N. Combined seas are 5 to 7 ft 
primarily in SW swell. Smoke from regional agricultural fires 
persists across the Central America offshore waters, as far south
as Nicaragua, which could reduce visibilities.

For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will continue
to pulse over the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia 
through Fri. For waters south of 09N, winds will be moderate to 
fresh through Fri. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist 
south of 10N through the period, with light to gentle breezes 
north of 10N. Light to medium haze from smoke caused by 
agricultural fires over Mexico could reduce visibilities over 
portions of the Central America offshore waters through Wed. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1008 mb low pressure area along the monsoon trough near 
12N108W. Fresh to strong SW winds near the low are converging 
into the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W. Combined seas in 
this area are 7 to 8 ft. The convergent SW winds are also 
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 150 to
200 nm of the low, from 09N to 15N between 103W and 111W. 

Elsewhere, a ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure centered 
near 38N143W, southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. 
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north 
of 05N and west of 110W, and primarily fresh NE to E trade winds 
from 08N to 27N west of 135W. NW to N swell of 8 to 9 ft is 
evident north of 28N between 115W and 140W. Combined seas are 7 
to 9 ft from 07N to 20N west of 134W. Gentle to moderate breezes 
and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the low pressure area will dissipate as it 
drifts northward to within 240 nm southeast of Socorro Island by 
Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish accordingly near the low
pressure, and showers and thunderstorms activity to weaken along
the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, the high pressure will weaken 
through Fri, allowing winds and combined seas to diminish 
slightly, including the large NW to N swell west of Baja 
California. Little change is noted over the remainder of the 
area.

$$
AReinhart