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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282150
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front moving southward 
across the Gulf of Mexico will enhance northerly gale force winds
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Friday. Winds will 
diminish below gale force late Friday and remain fresh to strong
through Saturday. Peak seas are estimated to reach up to 13 ft 
late tonight into Friday. Refer to the latest High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for details. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 106W north of 07N, moving
W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted where it intercepts the monsoon trough from 13 to 09N 
between 104W and 109W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the western Caribbean near 11N75W
to across Nicaragua and exits into the Eastern Pacific Ocean near
the Papagayo region 12N97W, then resumes near 14N101W to a 1012 
mb low pressure near 12N115W and continues to a second low 
pressure near 10N132W. The ITCZ extends from 10N134W to beyond 
10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the 
monsoon trough from 04N to 08N between 80W to 95W, from 10N to 
13N between 105W to 109W. An area of scattered to moderate 
convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 97W to 101W.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh winds are starting to diminish in the Gulf of California 
south of 30N and west of 110W with moderate winds elsewhere in 
the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf, except up to 5 ft in 
the central part. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail elsewhere
offshore of Mexico. Large NW swell continues to propagate offshore
of Mexico with seas of 8 ft or greater west of 101W, highest up 
to 11 ft from the Revillagigedo Islands to the northwest. Seas of
4 to 7 ft prevail east of 101W.

For the forecast, large NW swell west of 103W will gradually 
subside tonight. A reinforcing set will arrive west of Baja 
California tonight into Friday, subsiding by the weekend. Gentle 
to moderate northerly winds will prevail west of Baja California,
except light to gentle Sat through early Sun.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon
trough, locally fresh near the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil,
with mainly light and variable winds north of the monsoon trough.
Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in a
moderate southerly swell.

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will persist
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle variable winds
north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the
Papagayo region Sat night through Mon night. A moderate southerly
swell will persist through Sat, subsiding thereafter.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the convergence
zone with gentle to moderate southerly flow south of the convergence
zone. Large NW-N swell continues to propagate across the open waters
with seas of 8 to 9 ft or greater west of 103W. The peak seas have
subsided a bit, now around 12 ft near 11N116W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in
remnant mixed swell prevail east of 103W.

For the forecast, winds will diminish by the end of the week into
the weekend across the majority of the waters as the pressure 
gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to slip 
southeast of 30N140W by early Sun with fresh to strong SW winds 
ahead of it. The front will dissipate and associated winds will 
diminish early next week. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will 
gradually decay through the end of the week into the weekend. A 
new set of NW swell will breach southeast of 30N140W early Sun 
with the next front, propagating southeast through early next 
week.

$$
Torres

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Page last modified: Thursday, 28-Oct-2021 21:50:16 UTC