000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 6 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 12.5N83W to 07N95W to 
11N104W to low pres 1009 mb near 09N109W to low pres 1011 mb near 
07N118.5W. The ITCZ extends from 07N122W to 07.5N130W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 04N to 09N between 83W and 102W, and from 04N to 16N between
103W and 118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered north of Hawaii extends a broad ridge
southeastward over the offshore waters of Mexico to near the
Revillagigedo Islands. A weak cold front sweeping southeastward 
across central Baja California and the central Gulf of California
has dissipated this afternoon. The pressure gradient between the
high pressure and lower pressure across interior Mexico is 
supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore the 
peninsula, with fresh winds mainly between Punta Eugenia and Cabo
San Lazaro, as captured by recent satellite scatterometer data. 
Seas with these winds are in the range of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell,
except 8 to 9 ft to the NW of Guadalupe Island. Inside the Gulf 
of California, winds are light and variable across southern
portions, with seas to 3 ft. Across north and central portions,
behind the dissipated front, moderate to locally fresh N-NW 
winds prevail, with seas 2 to 4 ft. Elsewhere across the S and 
SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are light to gentle, and mostly  
from the W to NW, with moderate seas 5 to 6 ft in southerly 
swell.

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the local area will
shift NE throughout the week, and act to weaken the pressure
gradient across the Baja California offshore waters. This will
lead to winds becoming moderate across the Baja waters by 
tonight and continuing through Thu, with small areas of locally 
fresh winds developing near the coasts each afternoon and 
evening. As the high pressure shifts northeastward, NW winds 
will increase across the near and offshore waters of California,
with fresh NW winds extending southward to the Baja Norte waters
NW of Guadalupe Island. Associated NW swell will continue to 
move into the area offshore waters through the week, with seas in
excess of 8 ft persisting across the waters north through west 
of Punta Eugenia through Thu afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds prevail across the Central America 
offshore waters this afternoon. Seas across the area are 4-6 ft 
in S swell, except 3-4 ft in the Gulf of Panama. Between the 
coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to 
moderate from the S to SE as noted in recent satellite 
scatterometer data, with 6 to 7 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, S to SE winds south of 05N will become S to SW
and increase to moderate to locally fresh speeds from Tue 
morning through Thu. Light to gentle variable winds will be 
prevalent elsewhere along with moderate seas due in S swell. 
Otherwise, southerly swell will maintain seas of 5 to 7 ft S of 
the Galapagos Islands through early Fri, increasing to 6 to 8 ft
in S swell Fri afternoon through Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1029 mb high pressure is centered north of Hawaii near 36N150W
and extends a ridge south and southeastward across the subtropical
waters, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A cold front moving
through central Baja California this morning has dissipated and
is no longer discernible in satellite imagery. Moderate to 
locally fresh N-NE winds are noted between 115W and 125W, then 
become NE to E-NE to the west of 125W. Seas across this area N of
20N are 5-8 ft in mixed N and NW swell. S of 20N, between the 
ridge and the ITCZ and W of 125W, moderate to fresh NE winds and 
7-9 ft seas in NE swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to 
moderate SE to E winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed 
swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate 
seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds over the western
part of the tropical waters will prevail through Tue afternoon
then gradually diminish to moderate speeds through Fri as high
pressure to the north shifts northeastward. Seas with these 
winds will be 6 to 9 ft, and will subside Tue night into Wed. 
NW swell across the Baja California Norte waters will build
through mid week to produce seas of 8 ft and greater mainly N of
25W and E of 130W Wed through Thu night. The seas there will 
subside below 8 ft late Thu night.

$$
Stripling